Bank of Ghana Forecasts Positive External Outlook for 2026 Amid Significant Trade Surplus and Rising Gold Exports

The Bank of Ghana has projected a resilient outlook for the country's external sector in the second half of 2026, supported by robust trade performance and a significant increase in export receipts. According to the July 2026 Monetary Policy Report, Ghana recorded a trade surplus of US$8.81 billion in the first half of the year, a substantial rise from the US$5.76 billion recorded during the same period in 2025. This surplus was primarily driven by a 32.5% surge in total exports, which reached US$18.28 billion. Gold remained the cornerstone of this growth, with export values jumping 49.0% to US$12.50 billion, even as shipment volumes remained relatively flat due to regional conflict-related disruptions. Cocoa exports also saw a modest increase to US$2.29 billion, benefiting from favorable global pricing and improved supply conditions.

Despite the strong trade balance, the Ghana cedi experienced a period of depreciation in the first half of 2026, following a notable performance in the previous year. The local currency declined by 7.9% against the US dollar, 6.5% against the British pound, and 5.3% against the euro. The Central Bank attributed this trend to renewed domestic market pressures and specific country vulnerabilities, occurring even as the US dollar weakened globally. However, the Bank of Ghana remains optimistic regarding the cedi's medium-term stability, noting that volatility levels are lower than in previous high-pressure periods and expecting support from steady remittance inflows and easing foreign exchange demand.

Private remittance inflows saw a marginal year-on-year decline, totaling US$3.65 billion in the first half of 2026 compared to US$3.93 billion in 2025. Simultaneously, net income payments to non-residents rose to US$2.88 billion, driven by higher interest payments, profits, and dividends. The financial account recorded a net acquisition of financial assets of US$4.90 billion, with direct investment inflows reaching US$1.07 billion. However, 'other investments' saw significant net outflows of US$8.02 billion, largely due to commercial banks and the private sector accumulating foreign financial assets. This resulted in currency and deposits held abroad rising to US$5.26 billion by the end of June.

Looking ahead to the remainder of 2026, the Bank of Ghana maintains a positive stance on the external sector's ability to support macroeconomic stability. While the gold and cocoa sectors are expected to remain firm, the central bank cautioned that the crude oil market remains a point of vulnerability. Ongoing developments in the Middle East continue to impact global oil prices, which may keep import costs elevated. Nevertheless, the combination of a strong trade surplus and anticipated remittance support provides a buffer against external shocks as the government continues to manage domestic currency pressures.