IC Securities Forecasts Ghana's GDP Re-Acceleration in Late 2026 Following Q2 Slowdown

Ghana’s economy is poised for a significant re-acceleration in the second half of 2026, according to projections by IC Securities. Although real GDP growth eased to 6.0% year-on-year in the second quarter due to softer non-oil activity, the investment firm maintains a full-year growth forecast of 6.4% ± 0.5 percentage points. This optimism is anchored by expected recoveries in the extractive and agricultural sectors alongside sustained momentum in the services sector, which continues to be the primary engine of national growth. The services sector posted an 8.0% growth rate in the second quarter, and while this performance lags slightly behind the previous year's levels, it was bolstered by a stellar performance in the information and communication (ICT) sub-sector, which expanded by 30.9%. This digital surge continues to provide a vital buffer against volatility in other sectors. In contrast, industrial growth moderated to 4.3%, with mining and quarrying slowing to 2.6% and manufacturing easing to 4.3%. The agriculture sector faced even stiffer headwinds, slowing to 3.9% growth, largely due to a significant contraction in the fishing sub-sector, though the cocoa industry showed signs of resilience with a slight increase. Looking ahead, IC Securities anticipates a turnaround driven by the oil and gas industry and a rebound in cocoa production. The commissioning of new wells by Tullow Oil PLC is expected to bolster output in the extractive space. Furthermore, the third quarter of 2026 is projected to see improved crop harvests supported by enhanced domestic financing efforts. These factors, combined with the continued strength of the services sector, suggest that the temporary slowdown in the second quarter was a transition point toward a stronger finish for the fiscal year.