ANC projected to receive record low 32% in South African local elections

The African National Congress (ANC) is on track for a historic setback in South Africa’s local government elections, with early results projecting the party to receive approximately 32% of the vote. This figure represents a significant decline from previous performances, marking a potential record low for the party led by President Cyril Ramaphosa. With over 60% of the ballots counted, the projected outcome suggests a major shift in the country's political landscape as the ANC struggles to maintain its long-standing dominance in municipal governance.

The Democratic Alliance (DA) remains the primary challenger, currently securing between 24.2% and 25% of the vote share. This rise in support for the opposition coincides with a sharp drop for the ANC, which is currently polling roughly 14 percentage points lower than its previous historic low in 2021. Analysts indicate that the ruling party is facing particularly tough challenges in major urban centers such as Johannesburg and potentially Cape Town, where voters appear to be gravitating toward alternative parties and splinter groups.

Public dissatisfaction over persistent domestic issues is cited as a primary driver for the ANC's declining support. Voters have expressed mounting frustration with chronic shortages of water and electricity, as well as high levels of crime and systemic corruption. These service delivery failures have eroded trust in the party that has governed South Africa since the end of apartheid, forcing it to contend with a more fragmented electorate that is increasingly willing to look beyond the liberation-era movement.

The projected results carry significant implications for the future of South African politics, likely necessitating the formation of complex coalitions to govern key municipalities. As the ANC’s authority weakens at the local level, political analysts warn that these developments could set a challenging precedent for the party ahead of the 2029 national elections. The emergence of splinter parties and the growth of the DA suggest that the era of single-party dominance may be giving way to a more competitive, multi-party system.