ISSER warns gold dependence masks risks to Ghana's economy

The Institute of Statistical, Social and Economic Research (ISSER) has warned that Ghana’s $10 billion merchandise trade surplus in 2025 masks significant systemic risks due to an over-reliance on gold exports. Presenting the State of the Ghanaian Economy Report 2025, ISSER Director Professor Robert Darko Osei cautioned that while macro-economic indicators show signs of recovery, the economy remains vulnerable to volatile international commodity prices. The report emphasizes that a sustainable recovery requires urgent export diversification and a shift toward domestic manufacturing to buffer against external shocks and enhance global competitiveness.

A critical concern highlighted in the report is Ghana's persistent revenue gap, which threatens the government's development ambitions. Current tax revenue stands at approximately 30% of GDP, a figure that ISSER notes remains below the sub-Saharan African average. This shortfall creates a "financing constraint" that limits the ability to fund essential infrastructure and public services without further spending cuts. Professor Osei emphasized that merely controlling expenditure is insufficient; instead, the government must broaden the tax net to include more individuals and businesses rather than increasing the burden on existing taxpayers.

The report also addressed the disconnect between declining inflation figures and the daily experiences of Ghanaian households. Although the macro-economic outlook has improved, ISSER economist Professor Fred Dzanku observed that lower inflation has yet to translate into lower prices for goods and services. As of September 2026, the year-on-year inflation rate rose to 5.2%, but stagnant incomes and limited employment opportunities continue to suppress purchasing power. The institute argues that cost-of-living pressures will remain high until household incomes are boosted to match the stabilizing price environment.

To secure the private sector's role in growth, ISSER called for a significant reduction in borrowing costs, which continue to hinder business expansion despite a reduction in bank lending rates. The report advocates for more transparent mineral revenue management and the building of robust external reserves to protect the nation from future economic shocks. Ultimately, ISSER concludes that while the economic recovery is promising, strategic policy reforms in revenue mobilization and investment in productive industries are essential to ensure that growth is both inclusive and sustainable.