Global InfoAnalytics projects NPP will gain 12 parliamentary seats in 2028

A new statistical projection by Global InfoAnalytics suggests a shift in the parliamentary landscape for the 2028 general elections, with the opposition New Patriotic Party (NPP) expected to increase its seat count from 88 to 100. The inaugural Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) model forecast indicates that the governing National Democratic Congress (NDC) may see its current majority shrink from 185 seats to 154. Despite this projected decline of 31 seats, the NDC is still anticipated to retain control of the House with 55.8% of the total seats, compared to 36.2% for the NPP.

The report highlights significant uncertainty in 22 constituencies, including two classified as "toss-ups," which could ultimately determine the scale of the NDC's majority or the NPP's recovery. Global InfoAnalytics emphasized that these projections are generated using a statistical model based on current data and should be treated as estimates rather than definitive predictions of the final election outcome.

The projections have been met with skepticism by the governing party. Tanko Rashid Computer, the NDC's Deputy Director of Elections and IT, dismissed the findings during an interview with TV3. He asserted that the NDC is targeting 200 parliamentary seats in the 2028 elections, countering the suggestion that the party would lose ground. Mr. Computer rejected the report's modeling, maintaining that the party's internal strategies are focused on expanding their legislative dominance.

This forecast provides an early snapshot of the political environment following the inauguration of the current administration. As the 2028 cycle approaches, the performance of both parties in the identified swing constituencies will remain a critical factor for political observers and strategists trying to gauge the stability of the NDC's majority in Parliament.