Global InfoAnalytics projects NDC will win 154 seats in 2028

Global InfoAnalytics has released its inaugural multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) model projection for the 2028 parliamentary elections, forecasting that the governing National Democratic Congress (NDC) will secure 154 seats. The analysis indicates that while the NDC is expected to retain its majority in the 276-member house, its dominance may face a significant reduction compared to the 185 seats it secured during the 2024 general elections.

The forecast suggests a potential decline of approximately 31 seats for the NDC, while the New Patriotic Party (NPP) is projected to increase its representation from 88 to 100 seats. According to Mussa Dankwa, the Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, these figures would give the NDC a 55.8% majority in Parliament, with the NPP holding 36.2%. The model currently leaves 22 constituencies unresolved, comprising 20 undisclosed locations and two "toss-ups" primarily situated in the Ashanti and Eastern regions.

The implementation of the MRP model represents a new methodology for the research firm, designed to provide a more nuanced view of the electoral landscape by combining demographic data with regional trends. This shift in parliamentary strength suggests a narrowing gap between the two major parties as the political landscape evolves during President John Mahama’s current term.

Despite the projected seat losses, the NDC remains in a strong position to maintain control of the legislative branch. However, Global InfoAnalytics has emphasized that these findings are projections based on current data rather than definitive results and should be viewed with caution. The final outcome of the 22 unresolved seats remains a critical variable that could further influence the ultimate balance of power in the 2028 Parliament.