COPEC projects diesel prices to rise 4.1% in November

The Chamber of Petroleum Consumers (COPEC) and the Commerce and Advisory Center (COMAC) have projected a mixed outlook for fuel prices in Ghana for the first pricing window of November 2026. Diesel prices are expected to rise by as much as 4.07%, while petrol prices are forecasted to decrease. These shifts come as international market trends collide with a stabilizing local currency, creating divergent paths for the country’s most critical fuels starting November 1.

According to COPEC, diesel is expected to reach a retail price of GH₵19.15 per litre, driven primarily by an upward trend in international refined diesel prices. Conversely, petrol prices are anticipated to drop, with projections ranging from a 1.71% decrease to a 3.35% decline. COPEC estimates petrol will retail at approximately GH₵16.72 per litre, while COMAC suggests a figure closer to GH₵17.02. This downward pressure on petrol is the result of falling international petrol prices and a slight appreciation of the Ghana cedi against the US dollar.

The relative stability of the cedi has been bolstered by a US$1.5 billion injection into the economy, aimed at supporting the local currency. While international liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) prices have seen significant increases, local projections for the gas are varied. COPEC expects LPG prices to remain stable at the pumps, whereas COMAC anticipates a marginal increase of about 0.81%. Meanwhile, the National Petroleum Authority (NPA) has established new minimum price floors to regulate the market, setting the base for petrol at GH₵15.39 per litre and diesel at GH₵17.41 per litre.

In response to the projected hike in diesel costs, COPEC has urged oil marketers to consider reducing their profit margins to alleviate the financial burden on consumers and businesses. The chamber noted that while global market dynamics often dictate local prices, internal adjustments by stakeholders could help mitigate the impact of the price hike. As the new pricing window approaches, transport operators and industrial consumers who rely heavily on diesel are preparing for the adjustment, even as private motorists expect some relief from the drop in petrol prices.